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Cats Head Out for Final Road Trip of 2010 Season-Tennessee
Last night, the Cats exacted their sweet payback upon SOUTH CAROLINA and handed the Gamecocks a 21 point defeat, their second worst defeat of the season [26 point loss at Tennessee on February 6, 2010]. The Cats avenged their only loss of the 2009-10 season and became the only team in the nation who has beaten every team on its entire schedule during this historic season. Ironically, the only team to defeat this SOUTH CAROLINA team worse than the Cats did last night is the Cats’ next opponent, at Tennessee.
The 2010 SEC Season is winding down to its end, and the Cats have a little unfinished business before they can turn their full attention to the third season, post season 2010. That unfinished business consists of a final 2 game SEC road trip, at Tennessee and then at Georgia, before closing out the regular season on Senior Day in Rupp against Florida. The Cats maintain a 2 game lead and the tie-breaker over their closest SEC contender, Vanderbilt, with 3 games remaining, and need only one win or one Vandy loss to clinch the 2010 regular season SEC Championship. There is very little doubt that the Cats will do just that. Their first opportunity to slam the door shut on all pretense of opportunity for Vanderbilt will come Saturday afternoon when the Cats travel to Tennessee.
The Kentucky Tennessee basketball rivalry has always been among the most intense border wars in college basketball, and with Bruce Pearl’s arrival in Knoxville, this old rivalry heated to levels not seen perhaps since Ray Mears’ Orange Blazer, and little Stu Aberdeen sat at his side. With the addition of John Calipari to the Kentucky landscape, the heat generate by this rivalry is sure to cause Bruce Pearl’sweat glands to work overtime.
Tennessee’s 2009-2010 season has truly been two distinct seasons, 2009 and 2010. In 2009, Tennessee posted a 10-2 record, with a 1 point loss to Purdue on a neutral court, and an inexplicable 22 point loss at Southern California. However, the most impressive win for the Vols during the 2009 portion of this season was a 7 point win at Memphis [#55] on New Year’s Eve. Despite the overall weak 2009 schedule, the Vols had performed at a very high level of efficiency through those 12 games.
Then on January 1, 2010, the entire tenor of the Vols’ season took a left turn as 4 of their top 7 players were arrested on various weapons and drugs charges that cost their team the services of all 4 players for several games, and the services of Tyler Smith permanently. Since that day, Tennessee has played 15 games, 13 in the SEC and two more non-conference games prior to the SEC against Charlotte and Kansas. In the immediate aftermath of the strife, the remaining Vols rallied around their coaches and teammates to hand Charlotte a 17 point defeat and to give #1 Kansas their only loss of this entire season by 8 points. However, as the emotional boost of these events began to wane, the Tennessee team settled into a new reality, losing 5 of their next 13 games in the SEC taking them completely out of contention for the SEC championship and probably out of the running for the #2 seed from the SEC East in the SEC Tournament next month.
However, Cat fans should make no mistake that Tennessee, in Knoxville, remains a very dangerous opponent, and the Cats will need to play one of their best games to get out of Knoxville with their 28th win and avoid their second loss of this season.
It remains instructive to compare this Tennessee team’s 2009 performance to its 2010 performance.
Performance Indicator 2009 2010
Schedule Strength, Est. 0.5254 0.6226
Win-Lost 10-2 10-5
Pace/Tempo 75.1 68.7
Scoring 81.4 69.6
Scoring Defense 63.0 66.8
Off. Efficiency 1.084 1.013
Def. Efficiency 0.844 0.971
Net Game Efficiency 0.240 0.041
Turnover Rate 18.0% 18.6%
Opp Turnover Rate 27.5% 21.3%
Off Reb Rate 34.3% 32.5%
Def Reb Rate 71.3% 65.5%
As this table demonstrates, the Vols have responded to their new reality by slowing down the pace against a decided more difficult schedule. Their offensive efficiency has declined but their defensive efficiency has taken a nose dive. Their turnover rate has increased a little, but their defensive turnover rate has deteriorated significantly. Finally, they are not rebounding at either end of the floor as well as they had done in their first 12 games. The more difficult schedule can account for much of this deterioration, but it can’t explain all of it.
Tennessee today is a shadow of the team that started the year with Tyler Smith, and the team that used an emotionally charged set of circumstances to beat a great Kansas team. However, that shadow remains dangerous in Knoxville, and the Cats should not approach this game thinking that they can simply waltz into Thompson-Bowling and get the W by showing up.
For nearly every game matchup analysis, I rely upon both teams’ complete body of work on the season, but in this particular case, I don’t believe the Tennessee season numbers are representative of their quality of play over the last 13 games. Therefore, I have decided to use their cumulative numbers since January 1, 2010 for this analysis.
TENNESSEE will bring an 20-7; 8-5 record into this game. Over the last 15 games, TENNESSEE has averaged 69.6 ppg on 68.7 possessions per game, 1.013 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 66.8 ppg on 68.8 possessions, 0.971 ppp. TENNESSEE’s turnover rate through those 15 games is 18.6% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 21.3% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, TENNESSEE has grabbed an average 32.4% of their own misses but TENNESSEE has allowed their opponents to get 34.1% of their missed shots.
Kentucky has averaged 80.5 ppg on 72.1 possessions per game, 1.116 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.2 ppg on 71.8 possessions, 0.908 ppp. UK’s turnover rate through 27 games is 20.7% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.0% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful 42.6% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 30.9% of their missed shots.
Based on this data for TENNESSEE’S record over the last 15 games, and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a pick ‘em game, in a game to be played at a pace of about 70 possessions for each team. Based upon Kentucky’s demonstrated ability to win the close ones when the spot lights shine bright, I believe Kentucky will win by 1 point, 71-70.