This had to be one of the coolest moments I have seen live in Rupp, Magic Johnson doing the Y and groving to the John Wall dance, the Calipari era has sure brought out the stars with Big Ben, Magic, Lebron, Mike Tomlin, Irv Gotti, and Drake having all been to Rupp this season, thats got to be impressive to recruits, It’s great to be THE program again.

32
Cats Head Out for Final Road Trip of 2010 Season-Tennessee

Last night, the Cats exacted their sweet payback upon SOUTH CAROLINA and handed the Gamecocks a 21 point defeat, their second worst defeat of the season [26 point loss at Tennessee on February 6, 2010]. The Cats avenged their only loss of the 2009-10 season and became the only team in the nation who has beaten every team on its entire schedule during this historic season. Ironically, the only team to defeat this SOUTH CAROLINA team worse than the Cats did last night is the Cats’ next opponent, at Tennessee.

The 2010 SEC Season is winding down to its end, and the Cats have a little unfinished business before they can turn their full attention to the third season, post season 2010. That unfinished business consists of a final 2 game SEC road trip, at Tennessee and then at Georgia, before closing out the regular season on Senior Day in Rupp against Florida. The Cats maintain a 2 game lead and the tie-breaker over their closest SEC contender, Vanderbilt, with 3 games remaining, and need only one win or one Vandy loss to clinch the 2010 regular season SEC Championship. There is very little doubt that the Cats will do just that. Their first opportunity to slam the door shut on all pretense of opportunity for Vanderbilt will come Saturday afternoon when the Cats travel to Tennessee.

The Kentucky Tennessee basketball rivalry has always been among the most intense border wars in college basketball, and with Bruce Pearl’s arrival in Knoxville, this old rivalry heated to levels not seen perhaps since Ray Mears’ Orange Blazer, and little Stu Aberdeen sat at his side. With the addition of John Calipari to the Kentucky landscape, the heat generate by this rivalry is sure to cause Bruce Pearl’sweat glands to work overtime.

Tennessee’s 2009-2010 season has truly been two distinct seasons, 2009 and 2010. In 2009, Tennessee posted a 10-2 record, with a 1 point loss to Purdue on a neutral court, and an inexplicable 22 point loss at Southern California. However, the most impressive win for the Vols during the 2009 portion of this season was a 7 point win at Memphis [#55] on New Year’s Eve. Despite the overall weak 2009 schedule, the Vols had performed at a very high level of efficiency through those 12 games.

Then on January 1, 2010, the entire tenor of the Vols’ season took a left turn as 4 of their top 7 players were arrested on various weapons and drugs charges that cost their team the services of all 4 players for several games, and the services of Tyler Smith permanently. Since that day, Tennessee has played 15 games, 13 in the SEC and two more non-conference games prior to the SEC against Charlotte and Kansas. In the immediate aftermath of the strife, the remaining Vols rallied around their coaches and teammates to hand Charlotte a 17 point defeat and to give #1 Kansas their only loss of this entire season by 8 points. However, as the emotional boost of these events began to wane, the Tennessee team settled into a new reality, losing 5 of their next 13 games in the SEC taking them completely out of contention for the SEC championship and probably out of the running for the #2 seed from the SEC East in the SEC Tournament next month.

However, Cat fans should make no mistake that Tennessee, in Knoxville, remains a very dangerous opponent, and the Cats will need to play one of their best games to get out of Knoxville with their 28th win and avoid their second loss of this season.

It remains instructive to compare this Tennessee team’s 2009 performance to its 2010 performance.

Performance Indicator 2009 2010
Schedule Strength, Est. 0.5254 0.6226
Win-Lost 10-2 10-5
Pace/Tempo 75.1 68.7
Scoring 81.4 69.6
Scoring Defense 63.0 66.8
Off. Efficiency 1.084 1.013
Def. Efficiency 0.844 0.971
Net Game Efficiency 0.240 0.041
Turnover Rate 18.0% 18.6%
Opp Turnover Rate 27.5% 21.3%
Off Reb Rate 34.3% 32.5%
Def Reb Rate 71.3% 65.5%

As this table demonstrates, the Vols have responded to their new reality by slowing down the pace against a decided more difficult schedule. Their offensive efficiency has declined but their defensive efficiency has taken a nose dive. Their turnover rate has increased a little, but their defensive turnover rate has deteriorated significantly. Finally, they are not rebounding at either end of the floor as well as they had done in their first 12 games. The more difficult schedule can account for much of this deterioration, but it can’t explain all of it.

Tennessee today is a shadow of the team that started the year with Tyler Smith, and the team that used an emotionally charged set of circumstances to beat a great Kansas team. However, that shadow remains dangerous in Knoxville, and the Cats should not approach this game thinking that they can simply waltz into Thompson-Bowling and get the W by showing up.

For nearly every game matchup analysis, I rely upon both teams’ complete body of work on the season, but in this particular case, I don’t believe the Tennessee season numbers are representative of their quality of play over the last 13 games. Therefore, I have decided to use their cumulative numbers since January 1, 2010 for this analysis.

TENNESSEE will bring an 20-7; 8-5 record into this game. Over the last 15 games, TENNESSEE has averaged 69.6 ppg on 68.7 possessions per game, 1.013 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 66.8 ppg on 68.8 possessions, 0.971 ppp. TENNESSEE’s turnover rate through those 15 games is 18.6% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 21.3% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, TENNESSEE has grabbed an average 32.4% of their own misses but TENNESSEE has allowed their opponents to get 34.1% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 80.5 ppg on 72.1 possessions per game, 1.116 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.2 ppg on 71.8 possessions, 0.908 ppp. UK’s turnover rate through 27 games is 20.7% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.0% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful 42.6% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 30.9% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for TENNESSEE’S record over the last 15 games, and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a pick ‘em game, in a game to be played at a pace of about 70 possessions for each team. Based upon Kentucky’s demonstrated ability to win the close ones when the spot lights shine bright, I believe Kentucky will win by 1 point, 71-70.

32
Cats Return To Rupp To Avenge Their Only Loss Against South Carolina

Four games remain in the 2009-2010 regular season for the Kentucky Wildcats, and I do not know anyone who would have forecast a 26-1 record with 4 to play for this Freshman/Sophomore laden basketball team, especially when you factor in a first year coach taking over a team that finished 2009 embroiled in turmoil and internal strife. However, this team is 26-1, 11-1 in the SEC, and has a very good opportunity to run the table over these last 4 games.

What makes the 26-1 even more perplexing is that the sole loss came at the hands of a South Carolina team that frankly is not very good, and should not have been able to beat this particular Kentucky team at any venue in America on any night of the season. But it did. On Thursday night, the Cats gets their rematch with this team, a chance to settle the score and let the Gamecocks, the rest of the SEC, and indeed the entire basketball world know that the solitary loss on this year’s schedule was a fluke of epic proportions.

The Cats not only return to Rupp Arena to close the chapter regarding South Carolina in 2010, but it returns to Rupp triumphantly, having successfully traversed its most difficult two game road trip of this season, to Mississippi State and to Vanderbilt. Those back to back road wins against the best of the West and the best of the East [other than the Cats] essentially sealed the deal for the 2010 Cats with respect to the first of its major objective for the season, win the SEC regular season championship. Only a complete collapse, e.g. losing 3 or 4 of the final 4 games, will prevent that from happening now. As a result, the Cats’ focus can shift first to pay backs and then to preparing for the post season as the #1 seed in the SEC tournament, and a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in Mid-March.

SOUTH CAROLINA will bring an 14-12; 4-8 record into this game. For the entire season, SOUTH CAROLINA has averaged 72.8 ppg on 71.8 possessions per game, 1.014 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 70.0 ppg on 71.1 possessions, 0.984 ppp. SOUTH CAROLINA’s turnover rate through 26 games is 17.3% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 23.9% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, SOUTH CAROLINA has grabbed an average 34.4% of their own misses but SOUTH CAROLINA has allowed their opponents to get 38.2% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 80.4 ppg on 72.2 possessions per game, 1.113 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.3 ppg on 71.8 possessions, 0.910 ppp. UK’s turnover rate through 27 games is 21.0% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.1% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful 42.6% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.1% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for SOUTH CAROLINA’S full body of work, and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a Kentucky win by 22 points, 82-60  in a game that will be played at a pace about 72 possessions for Kentucky and 72 possessions for SOUTH CAROLINA. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.14 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.83 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 72 points.

Out of all 26 win, and each holds a special place in my heart, the win at Memorial Gym on Saturday was probably the most important of the year, and not just for the obvious reasons, like a 2 game lead in the SEC race.

The great thing about this win was the grind it out style, it showed that the Cats have the grit and toughness to win the ugly games that they will surely face in the NCAA Tourney. Winning when things are not clicking is a great confidence boost for this young club.

John Wall was held in check for most of this game, but his huge block at the end was amazing, he said a couple of  weeks ago that he was dedicating himself  on the definsive end, and this was a great payoff for that pledge.

Cousins did what Cousins do, its not always pretty but Damn its effective.

The best sign coming from this team is that the veteran Pat Patterson is peaking at the right time, he is hitting the clutch shots and his energy level on D and on the boards is at the elite level.

Barring a complete collapse over the last four games, UK will win the SEC outright.

Go Blue.

31
Cats Face Most Important Game of the Year at Nashville

Before the SEC season for 2010 began, I surmised that the road game at MISSISSIPPI STATE  would be decisive in the race for the SEC regular season championship. I reasoned that MISSISSIPPI STATE would be the class of the SEC West and the overall weakness of the West compared to the East would position MISSISSIPPI STATE to enter that game with few losses relative to SEC East contenders Kentucky and Tennessee. However, as usually happens, things have not worked out exactly the way I had anticipated for several reasons.

1. Arkansas emerged from its non-descript non-conference schedule with the return of Fortson, and handed MISSISSIPPI STATE 2 unexpected losses;
2. Tennessee lost the heart of its team prior to league play, and fell from a position of contending for the East, and
3. Vanderbilt has demonstrated to the entire league that it is a legitimate contender in the East.

As a result of these developments, the SEC regular season championship will go to Kentucky and/or Vanderbilt, making Saturday evening’s meeting between Vanderbilt and Kentucky in Nashville will be the most important game of the regular season for both teams.

Kentucky brings a 10-1 conference record into this game, with their only loss being on the road at South Carolina. Vanderbilt is 9-2, with a loss at Georgia and a loss at Rupp Arena to Kentucky. If Kentucky can sweep Vandy with a win on Saturday, they will leave the game 11-1 with only 4 games to play and a full 2 game lead over the Commodores. More importantly, the sweep gives Kentucky the tie breaker over Vandy, meaning that Kentucky must lose 3 of the last 4 while Vandy must run the table over the last 4 for Vanderbilt to overtake the Cats for the SEC Championship.

On the other hand, if Vanderbilt defeats the Cats, and these teams split their head to head meetings, they will both leave the game tied, 10-2, with 4 games remaining. If both teams win out from there, then Vandy wins the #1 seed in the East by virtue of its sweep of South Carolina, who will probably finish ahead of Georgia in the East.

Leaving Nashville tied with Vanderbilt does not mean that either team will actually win out over their final 4 games. Kentucky has road games remaining at Tennessee and Georgia while Vanderbilt has road games at Florida and Arkansas remaining on their schedule. None of those road games are assured wins for either of these teams. However, if Kentucky leaves Nashville Saturday in that tie, they can’t win the SEC regular season championship simply by winning all of their remaining games. They must get help from someone else who can hand Vanderbilt a 3rd loss.

So far this season, the Kentucky Wildcats have played 5 games on the road, winning 4 times. So far this season, the Cats have played back to back road games one time, winning both ends of that trip. On Tuesday, the Cats needed overtime to defeat MISSISSIPPI STATE, and Saturday afternoon this Kentucky team will play the back half of this two game road trip.

VANDERBILT will bring an 20-5 9-2 record into this game. For the entire season, VANDERBILT has averaged 78.6 ppg on 71.5 possessions per game, 1.098 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 68.8 ppg on 70.6 possessions, 0.974 ppp. VANDERBILT’s turnover rate through 25 games is 19.5% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 20.1% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, VANDERBILT has grabbed an average 33.7% of their own misses but VANDERBILT has allowed their opponents to get only 35.1% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 81.3 ppg on 72.2 possessions per game, 1.125 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.7 ppg on 71.7 possessions, 0.916 ppp. UK’s turnover rate through 25 games is 21.0% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.1% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful 43.5% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.2% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for VANDERBILT’S full body of work, and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a Vanderbilt win by 3 points, 72-75 in a game that will be played at a pace about 71 possessions for Kentucky and 72 possessions for VANDERBILT. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.01 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 1.04 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 73 points. However, given the demonstrated ability of this team to respond to the challenges in marquee games, I give the edge to the Cats, by 1 point, 74-73.