14
Cats Take Their Undefeated Game to Indiana

When UK announced its 2009-10 schedule, way back in August, most fans pointed to a three game sequence in early December as the first real test for this season’s version of the Cats. The Big Three: UNC at Rupp [Defending National Champs], UConn at MSG [2009 Final Four team on one of the biggest stages in the game], and IU in Bloomington [A Major rivalry and the first real road game of the season]. Most fans believed that if the Cats could traverse that dangerous sequence with only one loss, the Cats would be in fine shape; two losses, and the Cats’ youth would be exposed. Not many seriously considered either 3-0 or 0-3 as viable alternatives way back in August.

Well, the Cats have won the first 2 of this trifecta, and on Saturday, the Cats will take their undefeated basketball game on the road and into Assembly Hall against the Hoosiers. The Cats are one win away from completing this three game sequence 3-0, but if they do accomplish that feat, that is just one component of the early season accomplishments for this team.

IF, IF, IF, … Oh, how I despise the old If’ing game, but in this case, how can it be avoided. If the Cats win on Saturday,

• The 2009-10 Cats win the trifecta of big early season games; and
• The 10-0 start is only one game shy of the 11-0 start of the 1992-93 Cats, with the next 4 games all very probable wins, all at Rupp [Can you say 14-0 going into the Louisville game also at Rupp]; and
• The 10-0 start will match Coach Rupp’s 10-0 start in his first year at UK way back in 1930; and
• At 14-0, this team would surpass the 12-0 start of the 1983-84 Final Four UK Team; and
• At 14-0, this team would match the 14-0 start of the 1977-78 National Championship Team; and
• At 14-0, this team would be one win over Louisville away from matching the 15-0 start of the great Issel-Pratt 1969-70 team; and
• At 15-0, this team will send the pundits scrambling into the UK archives to learn about the 1965-66 Rupps Runt team that started 23-0 and the 1953-54 team that finished the season undefeated 25-0 before opting out of post season play due to NCAA intentions to prohibit UK’s best players from competing.

Well, let’s not get too far ahead of reality here. The Cats can’t waltz into Bloomington and leave with the W they covet without actually playing this game and defeating an up and coming IU Hoosier team. However, IF, a Huge IF, they do leave with that W, then all of the above comes into play, and this team will be poised to make its mark in the annuls of UK Basketball history.

No one suggests that the Cats have achieved this 9-0 start without having the talent, desire, and ability that any 9-0 start at the University of Kentucky suggests. However, there is also no denying that the manner in which this team has managed to post this 9-0 start has included nearly as many near losses [Miami, Stanford, UNC, and UConn] as solid, comfortable wins [Morehead, Sam Houston, Rider, Cleveland St, and Asheville]. So, no one can alter the 9-0 record, but similarly, no one can make the overall team performance levels through these first 9 games better than it has really been.

Indiana will bring a 4-4 record into the Saturday afternoon’s contest. Indiana has lost this season to Mississippi by 18 points, Boston U by 4 points, George Mason by 3 points, and Maryland by 12 points. The Hoosiers claim victories over Howard, South Carolina Upstate, Northwestern State, and Pitt, by 10 points in their most recent tune up for their encounter with the Cats.

Indiana has averaged 73.5 ppg on 88.9 possessions per game, 0.827 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 70.8 ppg on 89.9 possessions, 0.787 ppp. Indiana’s turnover rate through 8 games is 18.0% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 20.4% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Hoosiers have grabbed 34.7% of their own misses and limited their opponents to get 35.6% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 79.2 ppg on 87.2 possessions per game, 0.908 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 64.7 ppg on 84.4 possessions, 0.766 ppp. UK’s turnover rate through 8 games is 19.7% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 18.4% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed 43.3% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 32.9% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for Indiana and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates an 4 point win for the Cats, 74-70 in a game that will be played at a pace about 89 possessions for Kentucky and 87 possessions for Indiana. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 0.83 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.81 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 73 points.