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Cats Return To SEC Road at LSU

In the wake of their loss to South Carolina, the Kentucky Wildcats have responded with back to back double digit wins over Vanderbilt and Mississippi at Rupp Arena. Based on their bodies of work, MISSISSIPPI and Vanderbilt should both receive at large bids to March Madness in about 5 weeks reinforcing a conclusion that the Cats’ loss was an anomaly in an outstanding season.

While double digit wins over prominent conference opponents is always nice, the fact remains that the Cats established superiority early in both games, only to allow each of them to hang around within striking distance throughout the second halves of these games. This is a tendency that has manifested many times this season, and a tendency that this team really needs to eliminate.

Next up for the Cats will be LSU at the Maravich Assembly Center in Baton Rouge. The Maravich Assembly Center bears the name of one of LSU’s all time great players, Pistol Pete Maravich, who played in the 1968, 69, and 70 seasons and scored over 3,600 total points and averaged over 44 points per game during his 3 year collegiate career. However, as prolific a scorer as Pistol Pete was, he never played on an LSU team that could beat his Kentucky counterparts, led by Dan Issel, Mike Casey, and Mike Pratt.

Pistol Pete is not the only great LSU player to wage battle on the hardwood against the Wildcats. In the early 1950s, LSU featured Bob Pettit. In the early 1970s [1970], it was Pistol Pete. Then, in the early 90s, LSU featured Shaquille O’Neal. This season, 2010, the LSU Tigers feature Tasmin Mitchell. Just like prior episodes in this rivalry, Tasmin Mitchell is no more likely, and perhaps less likely, to leave his encounter with Kentucky with a win.

Every 20 years more or less for LSU, they seem to present an outstanding talent. However, over the years, even these special players have not enjoyed great, sustained success against their Wildcat counterparts. This time around, the Cats will put their #3 national ranking on the line and match that against LSU’s rapidly disappearing pride. On Thursday night, following LSU’s 5 point loss to Tennessee in Baton Rouge, the LSU coaches and players admitted that despite “only” losing to Tennessee by 5 points, LSU was 0-8 in SEC play and 9-13 overall, saying “it is what it is.” Coming close provides little to no solace under the circumstances of this LSU season.

Kentucky on the other hand has licked the wounds left by the South Carolina upset 10 days ago, and brings a 21-1 record into this game, including a 6-1 SEC record. This game at the Maravich Assembly Center provides the Cats with their best opportunity among their remaining road games to get a treasured SEC road win. For that reason, this trip to LSU is really in the must win category for the Cats.

LSU will bring an 9-13; 0-8 record into this game. The Tigers finished their nonconference schedule 9-5 with losses to UConn [#48] by 26 points and Arizona State [#25] by 19 on a Neutral court, at Xavier [#21] by 24 points and at Washington State [#107] by 1 point in overtime, and at home to Utah [#118] by 2 points. LSU’s most impressive win to date has been by 11 points over Indiana State [#154].

LSU has averaged 63.1 ppg on 64.5 possessions per game, 0.977 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.8 ppg on 64.7 possessions, 1.017 ppp. LSU’s turnover rate through 22 games is 19.6% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 18.3% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, LSU has grabbed a decent 36.5% of their own misses but LSU has allowed their opponents to get 32.4% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 82.4 ppg on 72.3 possessions per game, 1.139 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 66.4 ppg on 71.7 possessions, 0.926 ppp. UK’s turnover rate through 14 games is 21.1% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.5% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful, but declining 43.5% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.7% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for LSU and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 11-point win for the Cats, 77-66 in a game that will be played at a pace about 68 possessions for Kentucky and 68 possessions for LSU. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.13 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.97 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 73 points.