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Cats Return To Rupp To Avenge Their Only Loss Against South Carolina

Four games remain in the 2009-2010 regular season for the Kentucky Wildcats, and I do not know anyone who would have forecast a 26-1 record with 4 to play for this Freshman/Sophomore laden basketball team, especially when you factor in a first year coach taking over a team that finished 2009 embroiled in turmoil and internal strife. However, this team is 26-1, 11-1 in the SEC, and has a very good opportunity to run the table over these last 4 games.

What makes the 26-1 even more perplexing is that the sole loss came at the hands of a South Carolina team that frankly is not very good, and should not have been able to beat this particular Kentucky team at any venue in America on any night of the season. But it did. On Thursday night, the Cats gets their rematch with this team, a chance to settle the score and let the Gamecocks, the rest of the SEC, and indeed the entire basketball world know that the solitary loss on this year’s schedule was a fluke of epic proportions.

The Cats not only return to Rupp Arena to close the chapter regarding South Carolina in 2010, but it returns to Rupp triumphantly, having successfully traversed its most difficult two game road trip of this season, to Mississippi State and to Vanderbilt. Those back to back road wins against the best of the West and the best of the East [other than the Cats] essentially sealed the deal for the 2010 Cats with respect to the first of its major objective for the season, win the SEC regular season championship. Only a complete collapse, e.g. losing 3 or 4 of the final 4 games, will prevent that from happening now. As a result, the Cats’ focus can shift first to pay backs and then to preparing for the post season as the #1 seed in the SEC tournament, and a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in Mid-March.

SOUTH CAROLINA will bring an 14-12; 4-8 record into this game. For the entire season, SOUTH CAROLINA has averaged 72.8 ppg on 71.8 possessions per game, 1.014 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 70.0 ppg on 71.1 possessions, 0.984 ppp. SOUTH CAROLINA’s turnover rate through 26 games is 17.3% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 23.9% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, SOUTH CAROLINA has grabbed an average 34.4% of their own misses but SOUTH CAROLINA has allowed their opponents to get 38.2% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 80.4 ppg on 72.2 possessions per game, 1.113 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.3 ppg on 71.8 possessions, 0.910 ppp. UK’s turnover rate through 27 games is 21.0% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.1% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful 42.6% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.1% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for SOUTH CAROLINA’S full body of work, and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a Kentucky win by 22 points, 82-60  in a game that will be played at a pace about 72 possessions for Kentucky and 72 possessions for SOUTH CAROLINA. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.14 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.83 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 72 points.