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Cats Limp Home From USC To Take On SEC Leader Vanderbilt

Well, we now know with complete certainty that the Kentucky Wildcats will NOT run the table this season, as the South Carolina Gamecocks captured the moment on Tuesday night to hand this group of Wildcats their first loss of the season, dropping the #1 ranked UK team to 19-1, and more importantly at this time of year, 4-1 in the SEC. Vanderbilt will waltz into Rupp Arena on Saturday with their perfect SEC start, 5-0, intact after they waltzed out of Knoxville on Wednesday night with a huge SEC road win, their third in this young conference season.

The SEC wars are usually defined by who gets the most wins on the SEC road, and using that sole criteria, Vandy leads this race after 1/3 of the SEC season with 3 and the Cats are nipping at their heels with 2. Holding serve at Rupp is critical for the Cats, doubly so in this game, because a loss will hand Vandy their 4th road win, leaving them in a commanding position moving forward.

If Kentucky wants to win the SEC regular season championship, it must defeat Vandy at Rupp on Saturday. It is as simple as that. Saturday’s game, therefore, is the most important game for the Cats of all the games played thus far. Lose at home to Vandy, and the Cats not only must run the table on all remaining games, but must hope for help along the way from someone to hand Vandy a second loss, e.g. Kentucky’s ability to win the SEC depends upon others, and not just the Cats. Beat Vandy on Saturday, and the Cats have their own fate in their hands, e.g. by sweeping Vandy with a win in Nashville next month.

Vanderbilt will bring an 16-3; 5-0 record into this game. The Commodores finished their nonconference schedule 11-3 with losses to Cincinnati [#58] by 9 on a Neutral court, at Illinois [#49] by 11, and to Western Kentucky [#145] by 7 at a “Semi-Home” venue. In the SEC, Vandy has beaten Florida and Auburn at home and Alabama, South Caroliina, and Tennessee on the road. VANDY’s most impressive wins this season have been over Missouri [#12] by 6 points at home, and Wednesday night’s 9 point win at Tennessee [#20].

Vanderbilt has averaged 79.5 ppg on 71.4 possessions per game, 1.113 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 66.9 ppg on 70.6 possessions, 0.949 ppp. Vanderbilt’s turnover rate through 19 games is 19.7% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 19.8% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, Vanderbilt has grabbed a decent 34.3% of their own misses but VANDY has allowed their opponents to get 33.7% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 82.1 ppg on 72.2 possessions per game, 1.137 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.7 ppg on 71.6 possessions, 0.918 ppp. UK’s turnover rate through 14 games is 20.9% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.5% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful, but declining 43.2% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 32.0% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for Vanderbilt and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates an 9-point win for the Cats, 80-71 in a game that will be played at a pace about 72 possessions for Kentucky and 72 possessions for Vanderbilt. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.11 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.99 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 76 points.