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Cats Face Most Important Game of the Year at Nashville

Before the SEC season for 2010 began, I surmised that the road game at MISSISSIPPI STATE  would be decisive in the race for the SEC regular season championship. I reasoned that MISSISSIPPI STATE would be the class of the SEC West and the overall weakness of the West compared to the East would position MISSISSIPPI STATE to enter that game with few losses relative to SEC East contenders Kentucky and Tennessee. However, as usually happens, things have not worked out exactly the way I had anticipated for several reasons.

1. Arkansas emerged from its non-descript non-conference schedule with the return of Fortson, and handed MISSISSIPPI STATE 2 unexpected losses;
2. Tennessee lost the heart of its team prior to league play, and fell from a position of contending for the East, and
3. Vanderbilt has demonstrated to the entire league that it is a legitimate contender in the East.

As a result of these developments, the SEC regular season championship will go to Kentucky and/or Vanderbilt, making Saturday evening’s meeting between Vanderbilt and Kentucky in Nashville will be the most important game of the regular season for both teams.

Kentucky brings a 10-1 conference record into this game, with their only loss being on the road at South Carolina. Vanderbilt is 9-2, with a loss at Georgia and a loss at Rupp Arena to Kentucky. If Kentucky can sweep Vandy with a win on Saturday, they will leave the game 11-1 with only 4 games to play and a full 2 game lead over the Commodores. More importantly, the sweep gives Kentucky the tie breaker over Vandy, meaning that Kentucky must lose 3 of the last 4 while Vandy must run the table over the last 4 for Vanderbilt to overtake the Cats for the SEC Championship.

On the other hand, if Vanderbilt defeats the Cats, and these teams split their head to head meetings, they will both leave the game tied, 10-2, with 4 games remaining. If both teams win out from there, then Vandy wins the #1 seed in the East by virtue of its sweep of South Carolina, who will probably finish ahead of Georgia in the East.

Leaving Nashville tied with Vanderbilt does not mean that either team will actually win out over their final 4 games. Kentucky has road games remaining at Tennessee and Georgia while Vanderbilt has road games at Florida and Arkansas remaining on their schedule. None of those road games are assured wins for either of these teams. However, if Kentucky leaves Nashville Saturday in that tie, they can’t win the SEC regular season championship simply by winning all of their remaining games. They must get help from someone else who can hand Vanderbilt a 3rd loss.

So far this season, the Kentucky Wildcats have played 5 games on the road, winning 4 times. So far this season, the Cats have played back to back road games one time, winning both ends of that trip. On Tuesday, the Cats needed overtime to defeat MISSISSIPPI STATE, and Saturday afternoon this Kentucky team will play the back half of this two game road trip.

VANDERBILT will bring an 20-5 9-2 record into this game. For the entire season, VANDERBILT has averaged 78.6 ppg on 71.5 possessions per game, 1.098 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 68.8 ppg on 70.6 possessions, 0.974 ppp. VANDERBILT’s turnover rate through 25 games is 19.5% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 20.1% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, VANDERBILT has grabbed an average 33.7% of their own misses but VANDERBILT has allowed their opponents to get only 35.1% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 81.3 ppg on 72.2 possessions per game, 1.125 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.7 ppg on 71.7 possessions, 0.916 ppp. UK’s turnover rate through 25 games is 21.0% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.1% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful 43.5% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.2% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for VANDERBILT’S full body of work, and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a Vanderbilt win by 3 points, 72-75 in a game that will be played at a pace about 71 possessions for Kentucky and 72 possessions for VANDERBILT. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.01 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 1.04 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 73 points. However, given the demonstrated ability of this team to respond to the challenges in marquee games, I give the edge to the Cats, by 1 point, 74-73.