About a week ago, the Cats sustained their second loss of the 2009-10 season at the hands of the hated Orange in Knoxville, and many members of the Big Blue Nation took that opportunity to fall into a tailspin of negativity about this team. I am sad to say that I found myself among those in that tailspin, out of control with a loss of perspective. I am glad that the coaches and players that are making this team run did not react that way, and I am impressed by those fans who maintained sanity in the face of that ugly orange defeat and were able keep the loss in its proper context.

I apologize for my temporary insanity, and loss of perspective.

On Tuesday, the Cats returned to form and defeated GEORGIA by 12 points in a game that could have produced a much uglier margin but for Coach Calipari figuratively calling off the Cats to prevent a painting of Athens in Dawg blood. By returning to their winning ways, the Cats achieved several milestones [or inch pebbles if you prefer to only focus on the ultimate prize].

1. The 2009-2010 Team has won at least a share of the regular season SEC Championship for the 44^th time, and with that share the #1 seed from the East for this year’s SEC Tournament.
2. Won 6 of 8 SEC road games, and 7 of 9 road games on the season.
3. This team has all but sealed a #1 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament
4. This team is assured of only one Rupp loss for the first time since 2005, and with a win on senior day will be the first UK team to go unbeaten at home in a decade.
5. With their 28^th win of the season, this Cat team has posted the most wins ever by a UK team in a regular season.

• 1946-47:  27 regular season wins
• 1947-48:  27 regular season wins
• 1996-97:  27 regular season wins
• 26 wins in regular season for 86, 96, 98, and 03 teams

Sunday at noon, the Cats will host the Gators on Senior day. There are 3 seniors on this team; Ramon Harris, Perry Stevenson, and Mark Krebs. Each of them will be honored in the manner that has become the custom for UK players with their families present, the run through the hoops, and the playing of “My Old Kentucky Home.” Whether some of the undergraduates on this team receive any special recognition or not, it is likely that Sunday will mark the last time to play in a Kentucky uniform at Rupp for John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Patrick Patterson, who represent the heart and soul of this 2009-2010 team. These three players, following the guidance of Coach Calipari, have played their way into the hearts and memories of the entire Big Blue Nation, and they have rewritten so much of the UK Record Book in a single year.

Thank you Ramon, Perry, Mark, Patrick, John and DeMarcus for your contributions to the UK Basketball program. While you may be moving on to another portion of your young lives, you will forever be Wildcats.

Yes, Sunday is Senior Day!!! Yes, Sunday marks an end of the regular season!!! And, Yes!!! Sunday marks the beginning of the post season for this team and the BBN.

The Florida Gators are only incidental to it all. Prior to the season, I projected that the Cats would have the SEC wrapped up and that this last game would be of no consequence to the SEC race, and that is exactly what has occurred. Kentucky has emerged the champs, and the Gators are now firmly entrenched in 4th place in the SEC East fighting for an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament, and not a 3rd straight NIT appearance after their back to back NCAA championships in 2006 and 2007.

The Gators have become irrelevant!!!!

FLORIDA will bring an 20-10; 9-6 record into this game. Through 30 games, FLORIDA has averaged 71.7 ppg on 67.6 possessions per game, 1.060 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 64.7 ppg on 67.2 possessions, 0.964 ppp. FLORIDA’s turnover rate through those 30 games is 18.2% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 20.7% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, FLORIDA has grabbed an above average 36.5% of their own misses but FLORIDA has allowed their opponents to get 33.2% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 79.9 ppg on 71.9 possessions per game, 1.112 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.6 ppg on 71.6 possessions, 0.916 ppp. UK’s turnover rate through 30 games is 20.5% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 19.9% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful, but declining 41.9% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.2% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for FLORIDA and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 17 point Kentucky win, 78-61, in a game to be played at a pace of about 70 possessions for Kentucky and 70 possessions for FLORIDA. The predicted offensive efficiency is 1.114 ppp and the predicted defensive efficiency is 0.871 ppp.

On Saturday afternoon, the Cats failed to take advantage of an opportunity to lock up no worse than a tie with Vanderbilt for the SEC regular season championship, and the #1 Seed in the SEC East for the SEC Tournament. The Cats lost for the second time this season at TENNESSEE while Vanderbilt won at Arkansas, leaving the Cats with a 1 game lead with two games to play. Vanderbilt will write the next paragraph of this closing SEC Chapter on Tuesday night when they travel to Florida for their final road game of this season, and Kentucky will add its script to the book on Wednesday night in Athens Georgia, in the last road game of the season. A Kentucky win or a Vanderbilt loss will seal the SEC deal for the Cats. A Vanderbilt win coupled with another Kentucky loss will throw the race into a deadlock with one game to play this coming weekend.

This is the back drop for the Kentucky Georgia rematch of a game in January that saw a scrappy bunch of Bulldogs push the Cats much harder than most Cat fans expected or wanted to see. In that game, Georgia led at the half, 35-34. Georgia is only one of 6 opponents all season able to claim such a distinction, may be the only one to lead at the half at Rupp. In the second half, the score was tied, 59-59 at the under 8 TV timeout and the Cats lead stood at a mere 3 points at the under 4 TV timeout, 65-62. The final margin was 8 points, due primarily to the Cats hitting 7 of 8 free throws over the last 4 minutes of the game after Georgia was forced to foul due to trailing.

Georgia is a bit of an enigma. There record currently stands at 13-14; 5-9 in the SEC, but at home [and semi-home], this team is 13-3, including wins in their last 4 home games against Vandy, South Carolina, Alabama, and Florida. They also claim home victories over Illinois [semi-home], and Georgia Tech out of conference and TENNESSEE prior to the current 4 game home winning streak. The Dawgs were a tough out in Rupp in early January, and they will be an even tougher out in Athens in early March.

Prior to Saturday’s game in Knoxville, I warned that the Cats could not approach that game thinking that they can simply waltz into Thompson-Bowling and get the W by showing up. However, it appears to this observer that is exactly what the Cats tried to do, and they left with the L instead. The same analysis applies to this game with Georgia; the Cats will make a huge mistake if they believe that showing up will be enough to get out of Athens with a badly needed W.

GEORGIA will bring an 13-14; 5-9 record into this game. Through 27 games, GEORGIA has averaged 69.2 ppg on 67.0 possessions per game, 1.033 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 69.6 ppg on 67.5 possessions, 1.031 ppp. GEORGIA’s turnover rate through those 27 games is 22.9% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 17.7% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, GEORGIA has grabbed an average 37.5% of their own misses but GEORGIA has allowed their opponents to get 32.5% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 79.9 ppg [under 80 ppg for the first time this season] on 72.1 possessions per game, 1.108 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.5 ppg on 71.7 possessions, 0.913 ppp. UK’s turnover rate through 29 games is 20.7% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 19.8% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful 42.2% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 30.7% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for GEORGIA and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 4 point Kentucky win, 72-68, in a game to be played at a pace of about 70 possessions for Kentucky and 69 possessions for Georgia.  The predicted offensive efficiency is 1.027 ppp and the predicted defensive efficiency is 0.991 ppp.

Last night, the Cats exacted their sweet payback upon SOUTH CAROLINA and handed the Gamecocks a 21 point defeat, their second worst defeat of the season [26 point loss at Tennessee on February 6, 2010]. The Cats avenged their only loss of the 2009-10 season and became the only team in the nation who has beaten every team on its entire schedule during this historic season. Ironically, the only team to defeat this SOUTH CAROLINA team worse than the Cats did last night is the Cats’ next opponent, at Tennessee.

The 2010 SEC Season is winding down to its end, and the Cats have a little unfinished business before they can turn their full attention to the third season, post season 2010. That unfinished business consists of a final 2 game SEC road trip, at Tennessee and then at Georgia, before closing out the regular season on Senior Day in Rupp against Florida. The Cats maintain a 2 game lead and the tie-breaker over their closest SEC contender, Vanderbilt, with 3 games remaining, and need only one win or one Vandy loss to clinch the 2010 regular season SEC Championship. There is very little doubt that the Cats will do just that. Their first opportunity to slam the door shut on all pretense of opportunity for Vanderbilt will come Saturday afternoon when the Cats travel to Tennessee.

The Kentucky Tennessee basketball rivalry has always been among the most intense border wars in college basketball, and with Bruce Pearl’s arrival in Knoxville, this old rivalry heated to levels not seen perhaps since Ray Mears’ Orange Blazer, and little Stu Aberdeen sat at his side. With the addition of John Calipari to the Kentucky landscape, the heat generate by this rivalry is sure to cause Bruce Pearl’sweat glands to work overtime.

Tennessee’s 2009-2010 season has truly been two distinct seasons, 2009 and 2010. In 2009, Tennessee posted a 10-2 record, with a 1 point loss to Purdue on a neutral court, and an inexplicable 22 point loss at Southern California. However, the most impressive win for the Vols during the 2009 portion of this season was a 7 point win at Memphis [#55] on New Year’s Eve. Despite the overall weak 2009 schedule, the Vols had performed at a very high level of efficiency through those 12 games.

Then on January 1, 2010, the entire tenor of the Vols’ season took a left turn as 4 of their top 7 players were arrested on various weapons and drugs charges that cost their team the services of all 4 players for several games, and the services of Tyler Smith permanently. Since that day, Tennessee has played 15 games, 13 in the SEC and two more non-conference games prior to the SEC against Charlotte and Kansas. In the immediate aftermath of the strife, the remaining Vols rallied around their coaches and teammates to hand Charlotte a 17 point defeat and to give #1 Kansas their only loss of this entire season by 8 points. However, as the emotional boost of these events began to wane, the Tennessee team settled into a new reality, losing 5 of their next 13 games in the SEC taking them completely out of contention for the SEC championship and probably out of the running for the #2 seed from the SEC East in the SEC Tournament next month.

However, Cat fans should make no mistake that Tennessee, in Knoxville, remains a very dangerous opponent, and the Cats will need to play one of their best games to get out of Knoxville with their 28th win and avoid their second loss of this season.

It remains instructive to compare this Tennessee team’s 2009 performance to its 2010 performance.

Performance Indicator 2009 2010
Schedule Strength, Est. 0.5254 0.6226
Win-Lost 10-2 10-5
Pace/Tempo 75.1 68.7
Scoring 81.4 69.6
Scoring Defense 63.0 66.8
Off. Efficiency 1.084 1.013
Def. Efficiency 0.844 0.971
Net Game Efficiency 0.240 0.041
Turnover Rate 18.0% 18.6%
Opp Turnover Rate 27.5% 21.3%
Off Reb Rate 34.3% 32.5%
Def Reb Rate 71.3% 65.5%

As this table demonstrates, the Vols have responded to their new reality by slowing down the pace against a decided more difficult schedule. Their offensive efficiency has declined but their defensive efficiency has taken a nose dive. Their turnover rate has increased a little, but their defensive turnover rate has deteriorated significantly. Finally, they are not rebounding at either end of the floor as well as they had done in their first 12 games. The more difficult schedule can account for much of this deterioration, but it can’t explain all of it.

Tennessee today is a shadow of the team that started the year with Tyler Smith, and the team that used an emotionally charged set of circumstances to beat a great Kansas team. However, that shadow remains dangerous in Knoxville, and the Cats should not approach this game thinking that they can simply waltz into Thompson-Bowling and get the W by showing up.

For nearly every game matchup analysis, I rely upon both teams’ complete body of work on the season, but in this particular case, I don’t believe the Tennessee season numbers are representative of their quality of play over the last 13 games. Therefore, I have decided to use their cumulative numbers since January 1, 2010 for this analysis.

TENNESSEE will bring an 20-7; 8-5 record into this game. Over the last 15 games, TENNESSEE has averaged 69.6 ppg on 68.7 possessions per game, 1.013 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 66.8 ppg on 68.8 possessions, 0.971 ppp. TENNESSEE’s turnover rate through those 15 games is 18.6% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 21.3% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, TENNESSEE has grabbed an average 32.4% of their own misses but TENNESSEE has allowed their opponents to get 34.1% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 80.5 ppg on 72.1 possessions per game, 1.116 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.2 ppg on 71.8 possessions, 0.908 ppp. UK’s turnover rate through 27 games is 20.7% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.0% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful 42.6% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 30.9% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for TENNESSEE’S record over the last 15 games, and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a pick ‘em game, in a game to be played at a pace of about 70 possessions for each team. Based upon Kentucky’s demonstrated ability to win the close ones when the spot lights shine bright, I believe Kentucky will win by 1 point, 71-70.

Four games remain in the 2009-2010 regular season for the Kentucky Wildcats, and I do not know anyone who would have forecast a 26-1 record with 4 to play for this Freshman/Sophomore laden basketball team, especially when you factor in a first year coach taking over a team that finished 2009 embroiled in turmoil and internal strife. However, this team is 26-1, 11-1 in the SEC, and has a very good opportunity to run the table over these last 4 games.

What makes the 26-1 even more perplexing is that the sole loss came at the hands of a South Carolina team that frankly is not very good, and should not have been able to beat this particular Kentucky team at any venue in America on any night of the season. But it did. On Thursday night, the Cats gets their rematch with this team, a chance to settle the score and let the Gamecocks, the rest of the SEC, and indeed the entire basketball world know that the solitary loss on this year’s schedule was a fluke of epic proportions.

The Cats not only return to Rupp Arena to close the chapter regarding South Carolina in 2010, but it returns to Rupp triumphantly, having successfully traversed its most difficult two game road trip of this season, to Mississippi State and to Vanderbilt. Those back to back road wins against the best of the West and the best of the East [other than the Cats] essentially sealed the deal for the 2010 Cats with respect to the first of its major objective for the season, win the SEC regular season championship. Only a complete collapse, e.g. losing 3 or 4 of the final 4 games, will prevent that from happening now. As a result, the Cats’ focus can shift first to pay backs and then to preparing for the post season as the #1 seed in the SEC tournament, and a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in Mid-March.

SOUTH CAROLINA will bring an 14-12; 4-8 record into this game. For the entire season, SOUTH CAROLINA has averaged 72.8 ppg on 71.8 possessions per game, 1.014 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 70.0 ppg on 71.1 possessions, 0.984 ppp. SOUTH CAROLINA’s turnover rate through 26 games is 17.3% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 23.9% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, SOUTH CAROLINA has grabbed an average 34.4% of their own misses but SOUTH CAROLINA has allowed their opponents to get 38.2% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 80.4 ppg on 72.2 possessions per game, 1.113 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.3 ppg on 71.8 possessions, 0.910 ppp. UK’s turnover rate through 27 games is 21.0% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.1% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful 42.6% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.1% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for SOUTH CAROLINA’S full body of work, and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a Kentucky win by 22 points, 82-60  in a game that will be played at a pace about 72 possessions for Kentucky and 72 possessions for SOUTH CAROLINA. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.14 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.83 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 72 points.

The great thing about this win was the grind it out style, it showed that the Cats have the grit and toughness to win the ugly games that they will surely face in the NCAA Tourney. Winning when things are not clicking is a great confidence boost for this young club.

John Wall was held in check for most of this game, but his huge block at the end was amazing, he said a couple of  weeks ago that he was dedicating himself  on the definsive end, and this was a great payoff for that pledge.

Cousins did what Cousins do, its not always pretty but Damn its effective.

The best sign coming from this team is that the veteran Pat Patterson is peaking at the right time, he is hitting the clutch shots and his energy level on D and on the boards is at the elite level.

Barring a complete collapse over the last four games, UK will win the SEC outright.

Go Blue.

Before the SEC season for 2010 began, I surmised that the road game at MISSISSIPPI STATE  would be decisive in the race for the SEC regular season championship. I reasoned that MISSISSIPPI STATE would be the class of the SEC West and the overall weakness of the West compared to the East would position MISSISSIPPI STATE to enter that game with few losses relative to SEC East contenders Kentucky and Tennessee. However, as usually happens, things have not worked out exactly the way I had anticipated for several reasons.

1. Arkansas emerged from its non-descript non-conference schedule with the return of Fortson, and handed MISSISSIPPI STATE 2 unexpected losses;
2. Tennessee lost the heart of its team prior to league play, and fell from a position of contending for the East, and
3. Vanderbilt has demonstrated to the entire league that it is a legitimate contender in the East.

As a result of these developments, the SEC regular season championship will go to Kentucky and/or Vanderbilt, making Saturday evening’s meeting between Vanderbilt and Kentucky in Nashville will be the most important game of the regular season for both teams.

Kentucky brings a 10-1 conference record into this game, with their only loss being on the road at South Carolina. Vanderbilt is 9-2, with a loss at Georgia and a loss at Rupp Arena to Kentucky. If Kentucky can sweep Vandy with a win on Saturday, they will leave the game 11-1 with only 4 games to play and a full 2 game lead over the Commodores. More importantly, the sweep gives Kentucky the tie breaker over Vandy, meaning that Kentucky must lose 3 of the last 4 while Vandy must run the table over the last 4 for Vanderbilt to overtake the Cats for the SEC Championship.

On the other hand, if Vanderbilt defeats the Cats, and these teams split their head to head meetings, they will both leave the game tied, 10-2, with 4 games remaining. If both teams win out from there, then Vandy wins the #1 seed in the East by virtue of its sweep of South Carolina, who will probably finish ahead of Georgia in the East.

Leaving Nashville tied with Vanderbilt does not mean that either team will actually win out over their final 4 games. Kentucky has road games remaining at Tennessee and Georgia while Vanderbilt has road games at Florida and Arkansas remaining on their schedule. None of those road games are assured wins for either of these teams. However, if Kentucky leaves Nashville Saturday in that tie, they can’t win the SEC regular season championship simply by winning all of their remaining games. They must get help from someone else who can hand Vanderbilt a 3rd loss.

So far this season, the Kentucky Wildcats have played 5 games on the road, winning 4 times. So far this season, the Cats have played back to back road games one time, winning both ends of that trip. On Tuesday, the Cats needed overtime to defeat MISSISSIPPI STATE, and Saturday afternoon this Kentucky team will play the back half of this two game road trip.

VANDERBILT will bring an 20-5 9-2 record into this game. For the entire season, VANDERBILT has averaged 78.6 ppg on 71.5 possessions per game, 1.098 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 68.8 ppg on 70.6 possessions, 0.974 ppp. VANDERBILT’s turnover rate through 25 games is 19.5% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 20.1% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, VANDERBILT has grabbed an average 33.7% of their own misses but VANDERBILT has allowed their opponents to get only 35.1% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 81.3 ppg on 72.2 possessions per game, 1.125 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.7 ppg on 71.7 possessions, 0.916 ppp. UK’s turnover rate through 25 games is 21.0% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.1% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful 43.5% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.2% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for VANDERBILT’S full body of work, and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a Vanderbilt win by 3 points, 72-75 in a game that will be played at a pace about 71 possessions for Kentucky and 72 possessions for VANDERBILT. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.01 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 1.04 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 73 points. However, given the demonstrated ability of this team to respond to the challenges in marquee games, I give the edge to the Cats, by 1 point, 74-73.

Call Me Bitches

Shesh that was a little to close for comfort.

The Cats survived a outstanding effort from a undermanned State team, and showed alot of toughness in a extreme road enviroment, this was a great game and it was sad that the fans had to act like backwater rednecks at the end. There is no call of throwing crap on the court.

Cousins was tuanted all week on the phone and he showed that may be a bad idea as he responded with 19 pts 14 rbs. Holla bitch.

John Wall had a up and down game but came up large in streathes with 18 pts, 10 rb,s 8 assists.

But the big story was Patrick Patterson, who finally showed what he can bring to this team, he had 19 pts, 10 rbs but his overall floor game was his best of the year.

UK was just to big in the paint, ending the game with a 21 rebound deficit, the Cats also had 12 blocked shots.

Not enough can be said about the grit and determination this young team showed in the most hostile enviroment they have faced all year, they are evolving into a veteran ball club who rises to the challenge.

Coming back from down 7 with 3 min to go just shows how focused and tough this team is becoming, most good teams would fold at that point, but this team is showing the grit it will take to win a National Title.

This was a critical game for the team with the daunting road games left on the slate and USC and Florida at home, Vandy is coming up Saturday and as everybody knows beating them at home will take the performance of the year.

Go Cats.