36
Cats Begin the “Third” Season

A basketball year has three “seasons.” First, the non-conference schedule, second the conference schedule, and lastly, the post season tournaments. The 2009-2010 Cats finished the first season 15-0 and became the first program to win its 2000th game for the program. This team then traversed the SEC waters and finished the second season 14-2, winning all 8 of their SEC home games and 6 of 8 SEC road games. The losses occurred at South Carolina and Tennessee.

This team became the first UK team since 2000 to finish a season undefeated at Rupp Arena. In the process, these Cats have rewritten significant portions of the UK Basketball record book, won a 44th SEC championship, earned a #2 ranking in both major polls, earned the top seed going into this week’s SEC Tournament, and earned a #1 seed as action moves into the NCAA Tournament to crown the 2010 National Champion.

At 29-2, this team has won more regular season games than any prior UK team, and stands to finish the 2010 season standing aside 8 other great UK teams with similar regular season performances, e.g. 28-2 or better for the full season. Those 8 teams produced 5 of UK’s 7 National championships, and an NIT Championship when the NIT was perhaps more significant on the National scene than the NCAA.

1996 34-2 NCAA CHAMPS
1978 30-2 NCAA CHAMPS
1952 29-2 Finished 29-3
1951 32-2 NCAA CHAMPS
1949 32-2 NCAA CHAMPS
1948 36-2 NCAA CHAMPS, then Lost to Phillips Oilers and Finished 36-3
1947 34-2 Lost NIT Championship Game and Finished 34-3
1946 28-2 NIT CHAMPS

Members of this team have distinguished themselves just as the team has done, rewriting significant segments of the individual UK records, earning high SEC and All American honors and recognition. In the SEC, Wall is Player of the Year, and Cousins is Freshman of the Year. Wall, Cousins, and Patterson are first team All SEC, and Patterson is on the All Defensive team. Nationally, Wall has been recognized by early selections as Player of the Year, and Wall and Cousins are both being named to several All American first teams. Patterson has been recognized for All American Honorable Mention.

Yes, this team, and its players have performed at such a high sustained level that they will forever be remembered regardless of how the Third Season ends.

The Third Season begins in Nashville, TN where the Cats will be a heavy favorite to add the SEC Tournament Championship to their resume’. As the SEC’s Champion, the Cats enjoy a first round bye, and will play on Friday afternoon against Alabama, the winner of Thursdays’ first round matchup between South Carolina [East #5] and Alabama [West #4].

In a tournament, anything can, and often does, happen; however, as the time to play approaches, it appears that the Cats will face Alabama, Tennessee, and either FLORIA or Vanderbilt for the Championship. Of this potential sequence of games, Tennessee should provide the most formidable opposition, and in my opinion, the winner of the Kentucky-Tennessee semi-final game should win this tournament.

ALABAMA will bring a 17-14; 11-6 record into this game following their first round SEC Tournament win on Thursday. Through 31 games, ALABAMA has averaged 68.5 ppg on 66.6 possessions per game, 1.030 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 64.5 ppg on 65.9 possessions, 0.978 ppp. ALABAMA’s turnover rate through those 31 games is 19.4% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 21.1% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, ALABAMA has grabbed an above average 34.2% of their own misses but ALABAMA has allowed their opponents to get 34.4% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 79.7 ppg on 71.6 possessions per game, 1.113 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.6 ppg on 71.3 possessions, 0.920 ppp. UK’s turnover rate through 31 games is 20.5% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 19.9% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful, but declining 41.8% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.8% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for ALABAMA and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 10 point Kentucky win, 74-64, in a game to be played at a pace of about 69 possessions for Kentucky and 69 possessions for ALABAMA. The predicted offensive efficiency is 1.072 ppp and the predicted defensive efficiency is 0.928 ppp.

35
Cats Close Regular Season at Rupp Hosting Florida

About a week ago, the Cats sustained their second loss of the 2009-10 season at the hands of the hated Orange in Knoxville, and many members of the Big Blue Nation took that opportunity to fall into a tailspin of negativity about this team. I am sad to say that I found myself among those in that tailspin, out of control with a loss of perspective. I am glad that the coaches and players that are making this team run did not react that way, and I am impressed by those fans who maintained sanity in the face of that ugly orange defeat and were able keep the loss in its proper context.

I apologize for my temporary insanity, and loss of perspective.

On Tuesday, the Cats returned to form and defeated GEORGIA by 12 points in a game that could have produced a much uglier margin but for Coach Calipari figuratively calling off the Cats to prevent a painting of Athens in Dawg blood. By returning to their winning ways, the Cats achieved several milestones [or inch pebbles if you prefer to only focus on the ultimate prize].

1. The 2009-2010 Team has won at least a share of the regular season SEC Championship for the 44^th time, and with that share the #1 seed from the East for this year’s SEC Tournament.
2. Won 6 of 8 SEC road games, and 7 of 9 road games on the season.
3. This team has all but sealed a #1 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament
4. This team is assured of only one Rupp loss for the first time since 2005, and with a win on senior day will be the first UK team to go unbeaten at home in a decade.
5. With their 28^th win of the season, this Cat team has posted the most wins ever by a UK team in a regular season.

• 1946-47:  27 regular season wins
• 1947-48:  27 regular season wins
• 1996-97:  27 regular season wins
• 26 wins in regular season for 86, 96, 98, and 03 teams

Sunday at noon, the Cats will host the Gators on Senior day. There are 3 seniors on this team; Ramon Harris, Perry Stevenson, and Mark Krebs. Each of them will be honored in the manner that has become the custom for UK players with their families present, the run through the hoops, and the playing of “My Old Kentucky Home.” Whether some of the undergraduates on this team receive any special recognition or not, it is likely that Sunday will mark the last time to play in a Kentucky uniform at Rupp for John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Patrick Patterson, who represent the heart and soul of this 2009-2010 team. These three players, following the guidance of Coach Calipari, have played their way into the hearts and memories of the entire Big Blue Nation, and they have rewritten so much of the UK Record Book in a single year.

Thank you Ramon, Perry, Mark, Patrick, John and DeMarcus for your contributions to the UK Basketball program. While you may be moving on to another portion of your young lives, you will forever be Wildcats.

Yes, Sunday is Senior Day!!! Yes, Sunday marks an end of the regular season!!! And, Yes!!! Sunday marks the beginning of the post season for this team and the BBN.

The Florida Gators are only incidental to it all. Prior to the season, I projected that the Cats would have the SEC wrapped up and that this last game would be of no consequence to the SEC race, and that is exactly what has occurred. Kentucky has emerged the champs, and the Gators are now firmly entrenched in 4th place in the SEC East fighting for an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament, and not a 3rd straight NIT appearance after their back to back NCAA championships in 2006 and 2007.

The Gators have become irrelevant!!!!

FLORIDA will bring an 20-10; 9-6 record into this game. Through 30 games, FLORIDA has averaged 71.7 ppg on 67.6 possessions per game, 1.060 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 64.7 ppg on 67.2 possessions, 0.964 ppp. FLORIDA’s turnover rate through those 30 games is 18.2% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 20.7% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, FLORIDA has grabbed an above average 36.5% of their own misses but FLORIDA has allowed their opponents to get 33.2% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 79.9 ppg on 71.9 possessions per game, 1.112 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.6 ppg on 71.6 possessions, 0.916 ppp. UK’s turnover rate through 30 games is 20.5% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 19.9% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful, but declining 41.9% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.2% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for FLORIDA and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 17 point Kentucky win, 78-61, in a game to be played at a pace of about 70 possessions for Kentucky and 70 possessions for FLORIDA. The predicted offensive efficiency is 1.114 ppp and the predicted defensive efficiency is 0.871 ppp.

34
Cats Get Final Road Game of 2010 at Georgia

On Saturday afternoon, the Cats failed to take advantage of an opportunity to lock up no worse than a tie with Vanderbilt for the SEC regular season championship, and the #1 Seed in the SEC East for the SEC Tournament. The Cats lost for the second time this season at TENNESSEE while Vanderbilt won at Arkansas, leaving the Cats with a 1 game lead with two games to play. Vanderbilt will write the next paragraph of this closing SEC Chapter on Tuesday night when they travel to Florida for their final road game of this season, and Kentucky will add its script to the book on Wednesday night in Athens Georgia, in the last road game of the season. A Kentucky win or a Vanderbilt loss will seal the SEC deal for the Cats. A Vanderbilt win coupled with another Kentucky loss will throw the race into a deadlock with one game to play this coming weekend.

This is the back drop for the Kentucky Georgia rematch of a game in January that saw a scrappy bunch of Bulldogs push the Cats much harder than most Cat fans expected or wanted to see. In that game, Georgia led at the half, 35-34. Georgia is only one of 6 opponents all season able to claim such a distinction, may be the only one to lead at the half at Rupp. In the second half, the score was tied, 59-59 at the under 8 TV timeout and the Cats lead stood at a mere 3 points at the under 4 TV timeout, 65-62. The final margin was 8 points, due primarily to the Cats hitting 7 of 8 free throws over the last 4 minutes of the game after Georgia was forced to foul due to trailing.

Georgia is a bit of an enigma. There record currently stands at 13-14; 5-9 in the SEC, but at home [and semi-home], this team is 13-3, including wins in their last 4 home games against Vandy, South Carolina, Alabama, and Florida. They also claim home victories over Illinois [semi-home], and Georgia Tech out of conference and TENNESSEE prior to the current 4 game home winning streak. The Dawgs were a tough out in Rupp in early January, and they will be an even tougher out in Athens in early March.

Prior to Saturday’s game in Knoxville, I warned that the Cats could not approach that game thinking that they can simply waltz into Thompson-Bowling and get the W by showing up. However, it appears to this observer that is exactly what the Cats tried to do, and they left with the L instead. The same analysis applies to this game with Georgia; the Cats will make a huge mistake if they believe that showing up will be enough to get out of Athens with a badly needed W.

GEORGIA will bring an 13-14; 5-9 record into this game. Through 27 games, GEORGIA has averaged 69.2 ppg on 67.0 possessions per game, 1.033 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 69.6 ppg on 67.5 possessions, 1.031 ppp. GEORGIA’s turnover rate through those 27 games is 22.9% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 17.7% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, GEORGIA has grabbed an average 37.5% of their own misses but GEORGIA has allowed their opponents to get 32.5% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 79.9 ppg [under 80 ppg for the first time this season] on 72.1 possessions per game, 1.108 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.5 ppg on 71.7 possessions, 0.913 ppp. UK’s turnover rate through 29 games is 20.7% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 19.8% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful 42.2% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 30.7% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for GEORGIA and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 4 point Kentucky win, 72-68, in a game to be played at a pace of about 70 possessions for Kentucky and 69 possessions for Georgia.  The predicted offensive efficiency is 1.027 ppp and the predicted defensive efficiency is 0.991 ppp.